Ponente
Descripción
The dispersion patterns and arrival times to the Mexican coast of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) of atmospheric pollutants that would result from surface oil burns are studied using the WRF and FLEXPART models. Dispersion scenarios are analyzed under different meteorological conditions in the GoM basin: sea-breeze days (for winter, spring, summer, and autumn), cold fronts (Nortes), southerly wind, and tropical cyclones. The WRF model was used to dynamically downscale CFSR reanalysis fields to a horizontal resolution of 4 km. The positions for tens of thousands of particles released from different points over the GoM during multiple events for each meteorological condition were calculated with the FLEXPART lagrangian model, using the high-resolution WRF wind fields. The initial positions of the particles were randomly distributed vertically over a 900 m high column at different locations over the GoM.
Of the meteorological conditions that were analyzed, sea-breeze days represent the most significant risk for the air quality of Mexican coastal communities in the event of a large-scale oil spill in the GoM. During those days, larger accumulations of atmospheric pollutants within the planetary boundary layer are expected compared to other synoptic conditions. Point sources located near the cities of Tuxpan and Poza Rica, Veracruz produced, during summer sea-breeze days, the distribution of atmospheric pollutants that has the highest probability of affecting air quality in coastal communities of the state of Veracruz, with arrival times of less than 12 hours. In contrast, emissions for summer sea-breeze days from point sources located near the border between the exclusive economic zones of Mexico and the United States produced a distribution of atmospheric pollutants mostly contained over marine regions, with a low probability of arrival of the polluting material to the Texan or Mexican coastlines.
