Descripción
Wellcome, opening remarks, Operational Air Quality Forecasting
Operational Air Quality Forecasting: Progress and Challenges
ECCC's operational air quality program is based on a multi-pollutant forecast and warning program and includes several Air Quality (AQ)-related products. Currently, AQ information is communicated through an Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) that is primarily based on forecasted and/or observed concentrations of O3, NO2 and PM2.5. The ECCC national AQ program is supported by two operational...
NOAA provides operational predictions of air quality (AQ) for the United States and aerosols globally. We present recent progress in the development of NOAA’s next generation AQ and aerosols predictions, within the new Unified Forecast System (UFS) framework.
Development of AQ predictions focuses on better representation of wildfire impacts. A new limited-area, high-resolution Rapid...
A substantial fraction of R&D activities that underpin operational air quality forecasting in Europe takes place under the umbrella of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). CAMS provides daily analyses and 3-day forecasts of the main air pollutants over Europe using a 9-member ensemble of state-of-the-art regional air quality systems. CAMS also provides twice daily global...
NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) is on its way to deploy various operational prediction applications using the Unified Forecast System, a community-based coupled, comprehensive Earth modeling system. An aerosol model component developed in collaboration among the Global Systems Laboratory, Chemical Science Laboratory, the Air Resources Laboratory, and Environmental Model center (GSL, CSL,...
The next-generation National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) in the U.S. now uses the advanced Finite Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) Global Forecast System (GFS) Version 16 to drive the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.3.1. Development of the NOAA-EPA Atmosphere Chemistry Coupler (NACC) formed the bridge between the GFSv16 driving meteorology and CMAQ model chemical...
An operational air quality forecasting model system has been developed and provides daily forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter for the area of Hungary and three big cites of the country (Budapest, Miskolc and Pécs). The core of the model system is the CHIMERE off-line chemical transport model. The AROME numerical weather prediction model provides the gridded...
The use of probabilistic forecasting has been growing in a variety of disciplines because of its potential to emphasize the degree of uncertainty inherent in a prediction. Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts, however, is oftentimes a difficult endeavor and can deter users who may benefit from such forecasts. To encourage broader use of probabilistic forecasts and to show their...
2021 has been a very active year in North America for wildfires, especially in western and central Canada. More than 4 million hectares of forested land in Canada were burned as of September 2021, well above the average for the last 10 years. Over 40,000 people in several regions were evacuated from their homes, also above average, and dozens of residences were destroyed, notably in Lytton...
As the frequency and intensity of large forest fires continue to increase in the western North America, so do the costs of firefighting, health burdens, life and property losses. Smoke forecasting and early warning are effective tools to mitigate the harmful effects of wildfires and associated air pollution. This work presents a new international initiative, the North America Centre of the...
We employ the regional coupled meteorology-atmospheric chemistry WRF-Chem model to perform air quality forecasts over the Eastern Mediterranean, and inter-compare with the forecast from the EU Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service – CAMS. The model forecast skill is evaluated using measurements the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants from a dense network of 9 ground stations in the...
